Scenario Analysis and Webinar on Food Security Impacts of the Ukraine War

How can humanitarian and development organisations prepare for future impacts on food security due to the Ukraine war? To answer this question NFP, KUNO, and eight international NGOs worked with Wageningen University & Research to develop four scenarios that provide insights into possible implications for their work. The results were discussed in a webinar on 24 May where organisations looked forward together to see what they could do within their mandates to steer towards better prepared future actions.

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Key insights

Discussion during the webinar identified a number of key action perspectives for humanitarian and development organisations to better prepare for the impacts of the Ukraine war, listed here:

  • Create awareness among decision-makers of actions that can already be taken to avoid worst case scenarios and make use of current opportunities
  • Use scenarios during project planning and management meetings to identify where adjustments can be made in current programmes
  • Identify regional food baskets where production may be threatened and can be sustained / increased. Here, organisations could for instance ensure continued access to inputs of farmers or support agroecological approaches where this has potential.
  • Raise awareness for the need to take a nutrition sensitive approach as food availability and access may decrease
  • Integrate flexible approaches to promote humanitarian-development-peace nexus programming
  • Enhance adaptive capacities of communities and stakeholders by contextualising the scenarios

Watch a recording of the webinar below:

View the visual scenario report here.